NHÌN TỪ DỰ THẢO BẢNG GIÁ ĐẤT 2026 Ở HÀ NỘI: “CHI PHÍ ĐẦU VÀO TĂNG, LÀM SAO GIẢM ĐƯỢC GIÁ NHÀ?” / FRO

According to experts, the real estate market is highly sensitive to policy impacts. The fact that the 2026 land price lists in Hanoi and other localities are trending upward will put the market under pressure from a new “wave” of price increases, making the goal of reducing housing prices even more difficult to achieve.

“New land price table higher than the previous one: Is the real estate market facing new prescsures?

Hanoi’s Department of Agriculture and Environment has recently submitted a draft proposal for the development of the city’s first official Land Price Table (as stipulated in Article 257 of the 2024 Land Law), which is expected to be announced and applied starting January 1, 2026. According to the draft, residential land prices in Hanoi are projected to increase by between 2% and 26% compared to the current land price table.

Specifically, central areas located within Ring Roads 1, 2, and 3 are expected to see a modest increase of around 2%, with the highest price reaching more than 702 million VND/m², applied to the street frontage on expensive streets such as: Ba Trieu, Dinh Tien Hoang, Hai Ba Trung, Hang Dao, Ly Thuong Kiet, Tran Hung Dao.... In contrast, suburban districts including Me Linh, Dong Anh, Hoai Duc, An Khanh, Thanh Tri, Thuong Tin, Thanh Oai.... are projected to experience stronger growth, ranging from 16% to 26%.

The fact that the upcoming land price framework is expected to rise compared to the current one no longer comes as a surprise. As early as the end of 2024, Hanoi had already adjusted a provisional land price table for the transitional period through the end of 2025 and the increase at that time was considered "unprecedented", from 2 to 6 times compared to the old price list.

Not only Hanoi, but many localities across the country have also entered a similar “land price surge cycle” during the 2024–2025 period. In Ho Chi Minh City, the adjusted land price framework, effective from October 31, 2024, rose by 4 to 38 times, with the highest rate reaching 687.2 million VND/m². Bac Giang recorded an average increase of about 2.4 times, with the highest land price reaching 120 million VND/m². Meanwhile, in Hai Phong, some areas even saw price hikes of up to 373% compared to the previous framework.

On the basis of already high adjusted land prices, along with the requirement to develop land price tables approaching market values under the 2024 Land Law, the first land price tables expected to take effect in 2026 in localities, are believed to show a strong upward trend.

And that means the real estate market is poised to face a new wave of ripple effects, from rising input costs for businesses and increased financial obligations for citizens to upward pressure on housing prices and rental rates in the near future.

“Sometimes, the policy has not been applied yet, but the market price has skyrocketed”

The first land price tables in localities are likely to rise sharply, creating a major paradox for the market: How can housing prices be reduced when input costs are being officially pushed higher?

Land prices are a decisive variable, accounting for a substantial share of a real estate project’s overall cost structure. It should be understood that the new land price framework not only affects civil transactions but also serves as the legal basis for the State to collect land use fees and land rents. When the land price framework (the basis for valuation) soars, the input costs that businesses must pay into the state budget will automatically increase. These are non-negotiable costs. And clearly, no developer can “shoulder the loss” or voluntarily sacrifice profits to absorb these rising expenses. They have only one option which is to add it directly to the final selling price.

The inevitable consequence is that housing prices continue to rise, making the goal of lowering prices to improve affordability for citizens even more difficult.

According to experts, the State seeks to increase revenue by aligning input costs with market prices, yet expects a non-market outcome on the output side, namely lower housing prices. This presents a conflict of interests, with the burden of higher costs being passed directly onto homebuyers.

Lawyer Lê Cao, Managing Partner of FDVN Law Firm, stated that the adjustment of land price tables upward, even though aimed at approaching market levels and increasing budget revenue, will create immense pressure on real estate price levels. He particularly emphasized this risk in the context of a market that has only just begun to “tried to get up” after a prolonged period of stagnation.

According to lawyer Cao, when all land-related financial costs rise simultaneously, the inevitable burden will fall on homebuyers. In major urban, prices that were already very high are now set to rise even further. 

“The core issue lies in the fact that the real estate market is extremely sensitive to policy impacts. Sometimes, even before a policy is implemented, market prices have already surged. This creates a never-ending cycle: land price tables try to ‘catch up’ with the market, but this very move further fuels price increases, making policies perpetually unable to keep pace,” emphasized Lawyer Cao.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyễn Quốc Hiệp, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Construction Contractors, noted that the goal of reducing housing prices will be extremely difficult to achieve if input land prices continue to set new benchmarks, following the trend of “new table is higher than the last.”

According to him, while the continuous upward adjustment of local land price frameworks to align with market values is necessary, the current valuation process still lacks a scientific basis and fails to take into account the economy’s actual capacity to absorb such increases.

He also warned that soaring land prices could diminish Vietnam’s investment appeal. According to Mr. Hiệp, the current occupancy rate of 80–90% across most industrial clusters is largely driven by three key advantages: low labor costs, reasonable land prices, and convenient logistics infrastructure.

 “But if we lose the advantage of reasonable land costs while labor expenses continue to rise, will we still retain our investment appeal? Will Vietnam still be a standout destination for investment in Southeast Asia?” he questioned.

According to the Chairman of the Vietnam Construction Contractors Association, the 2024 Land Law requires a balance of interests between the State, land users, and investors. However, in practice, under the current method of land price determination, the interests of businesses, including those leasing or using land in general or real estate developers in particular, have not been adequately taken into account. 

“Rising land prices drive up investment costs and increase risks, so which businesses would still dare to carry out projects? If businesses do not implement projects, the locality’s sustainable revenue will also be affected,” Mr. Hiệp emphasized.

According to experts, the annual determination of land prices should aim to approach actual market values, but it must be carefully calculated based on scientific principles and an effective management system. Only then can land pricing policies fulfill their regulatory role, rather than inadvertently becoming a “spark” that allows the market to be manipulated.

In particular, experts emphasize that adjustments to the land price table need a clear and flexible roadmap, ensuring that it both accurately reflects the true value of land and does not create a cost shock for the economy. 

Lawyer Lê Cao commented: “The foremost objective is to ensure a balance of interests between the State, businesses, and the public, so that the land price table truly reflects the economic value of land without becoming a ‘burden’ that slows down the recovery of the real estate market.”

The lawyer warned that if land pricing policies are introduced without proper alignment and the market is not effectively regulated, real estate activity will be stifled. In such a scenario, genuine homebuyers will struggle to access property, while transactions will largely revolve around speculators seeking profit.